Wall Street flat on lack of "fiscal cliff" progress

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday after remarks by President Barack Obama on budget talks dented optimism a solution could be found to prevent the economy from falling into recession.

Obama rejected a Republican proposal to resolve a looming fiscal crisis as "still out of balance" and said any deal must include a rise in income tax rates on the wealthiest Americans.

Obama spoke in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Republicans in Congress proposed steep spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit on Monday but gave no ground on Obama's call to raise tax rates on the rich. The proposal was quickly dismissed by the White House.

"We have more of the same and what that really means is that you see very public negotiations that seem to be going nowhere," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"If there was any conviction that this was going to be a done deal, that we are going to see some really positive resolution on this fiscal cliff, you would see some real activity in the market."

The market has been sensitive to rhetoric from Washington, and many investors still expect the two sides eventually will reach a deal before the year's end, which could trigger a rally in equities.

Obama meets with U.S. governors at the White House on Tuesday to talk about the fiscal cliff, a $600 billion package of tax hikes and federal spending cuts that would begin January 1.

Volume was light, with about 3.34 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE MKT and Nasdaq.

Differences within the Republican Party over how to engage with the Democrats came to the fore on Tuesday as one senator opposed to raising taxes lashed out at House Speaker and fellow Republican John Boehner for proposing to increase revenue by closing some tax loopholes.

Despite the sudden moves in the market, a measure of investor anxiety has held surprisingly flat.

The CBOE volatility index <.vix>, a gauge of market anxiety, was at 17.36 but has not traded above 20 since July following its 2012 high near 28 hit in June. The VIX's 10-day Average True Range, an internal volatility measure, is at its lowest since early 2007.

Coach became the latest company to advance the date of its next dividend payment. Expectations of higher taxes on dividends kicking in in 2013 have pushed many companies to pay special dividends this year or advance their next pay-back to investors. Shares of the upscale leather-goods maker declined 2 percent to $57.06.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> added 16.60 points, or 0.13 percent, to 12,982.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> dropped 0.27 point, or 0.02 percent, to 1,409.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> dipped 3.81 points, or 0.13 percent, to 2,998.39.

Darden Restaurants Inc plunged 10.3 percent to $47.04 as the worst performer on the S&P 500 after warning its latest quarter would miss expectations after unsuccessful promotions led to a decline in sales at its Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse chains.

In contrast, Big Lots Inc surged 13.8 percent to $31.95 after the close-out retailer posted a smaller-than-expected loss and boosted its full-year adjusted earnings forecast.

Toll Brothers shares gained 1.1 percent to $32.80 after the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder reported a higher quarterly profit and said new orders rose sharply.

MetroPCS Communications shares tumbled 7.2 percent to $10.00 after Sprint Nextel appeared unlikely to make a counter-offer for the wireless service provider.

Shares of Pep Boys-Manny Moe and Jack slid 13.5 percent at $9.24 a day after the release of the auto parts retailer's results.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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DealBook: UBS Described as Near Deal With U.S. and Britain on Rate Rigging

UBS, the Swiss banking giant, is close to reaching settlements with American and British authorities over the manipulation of interest rates, the latest case in a multiyear investigation that has rattled the financial industry and spurred a public outcry for broad reform.

UBS is expected to pay more than $450 million to settle claims that some employees reported false rates to increase the bank’s profit, according to officials briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the talks were private.

If the bank agrees to the deals with various authorities, the collective penalties would yield the largest total fines to date related to the rate-rigging inquiry and would increase the likelihood that other financial institutions would face stiff penalties. Authorities dealt their first blow in the rate-rigging case in June when the British bank Barclays agreed to a $450 million settlement.

A spokeswoman for UBS declined to comment. The agencies leading the UBS investigation, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Justice Department and Britain’s Financial Services Authority, also declined to comment.

The UBS case will provide a window into systemic problems in the rate-setting process, which affects how consumers and companies borrow money around the world. After reviewing thousands of internal bank e-mails and interviewing dozens of employees, the authorities have uncovered patterns of abuse at the major banks that help set benchmark interest rates.

Libor Explained

The sprawling investigation is focused on benchmarks like the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The rate, a measure of how much banks charge each other for loans, is used to determine the costs of trillions of dollars of mortgages, credit card charges and student loans.

The authorities claim that UBS traders colluded with rival banks to influence rates in an effort to bolster their profits, according to officials briefed on the matter. Some traders at UBS were suspended this year over the matter.

Given the scope of the case, the UBS settlement is expected to heighten calls for a reform of the Libor system. Lawmakers are pushing to change the way banks report rates, providing more transparency to consumers, companies and investors that rely on the benchmark.

The reform movement gained momentum after global authorities secured the settlement with Barclays. Regulators had accused Barclays of reporting false rates, a scandal that prompted the resignation of the chief executive and other top officials at the bank.

Global authorities are now moving forward with civil and criminal cases, setting up the potential for major fines and regulatory sanctions. Some banks are in advanced settlement talks, including UBS and the Royal Bank of Scotland. The Royal Bank said it expected to disclose penalties before the firm’s next earnings release in February. Deutsche Bank said last month that it had set aside money to cover potential fines, although it was too early to predict the size.

American authorities are hoping to complete a deal with UBS by the middle of the month, according to officials briefed on the matter. The officials noted that the discussions could spill into next year. The talks could also break down, in which case the authorities would file a lawsuit against the bank.

It is unclear whether global authorities will act in tandem on the UBS case. The bank and the regulators would prefer to strike a deal together, but the agencies are proceeding at different speeds.

Investigators say the broader Libor case could go on for years.

Canadian, Swiss and Asian authorities as well as the Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Britain’s Financial Services Authority are investigating the actions of more than a dozen banks. Along with UBS, the futures commission is focused on potential wrongdoing at two American banks, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, the officials said. HSBC is also under scrutiny.

In addition to the regulatory cases, the Justice Department has identified potential criminal wrongdoing by traders at Barclays and other banks. The banks also face private lawsuits from large investors like local governments, which claim to have suffered losses as a result of interest rate manipulation. The New York attorney general has subpoenaed 16 banks over their role in the scandal, an action that could foreshadow civil lawsuits. Analysts predict the financial industry could face penalties of up to $20 billion.

“The evidence that comes out of any future settlement is likely to be enormously helpful for our claims,” said David E. Kovel, a partner at the law firm Kirby McInerney who is representing clients in a potential class-action suit related to Libor.

For UBS, the Libor case comes at a difficult time.

It has faced a series of legal problems since the financial crisis. In 2009, the bank agreed to pay $780 million to settle accusations by American authorities that it helped wealthy clients avoid taxes.

In 2011, it announced a $2.3 billion loss prompted by a rogue trader, Kweku M. Adoboli, who received a seven-year jail sentence for fraud last month. The firm agreed to pay a $47.5 million penalty to the British authorities in connection with the trading loss.

In the Libor case, UBS has been eager to cooperate. It has already reached a conditional immunity deal with the antitrust arm of the Justice Department, which could protect the bank from criminal prosecution under certain conditions. It is also cooperating with Canadian antitrust authorities by handing over e-mails and other documents implicating other banks.

But it did acknowledge publicly that such deals would not shield the bank from potential penalties from other regulators. The Justice Department’s criminal unit, for instance, could still take action against the bank.

UBS disclosed last year that it was the subject of investigations related to Libor, saying it had received subpoenas from American and Japanese authorities. Swiss and British regulators have joined the UBS investigation, which involves a number of currencies in the Libor system.

The timing of the Libor cases against UBS depends in large part on cooperation among regulators.

The Financial Services Authority in Britain has worked closely with its American counterparts. In total, the British regulator has about 160 people working on its various cases against banks, which are at different stages of development.

As the top watchdog of London’s financial services industry, the British regulator has positioned itself as a conduit for document requests from international regulators regarding Libor, which is set daily by banks in London. The agency also organizes interviews for its American counterparts with London-based bankers involved in the inquiries, according to an official with direct knowledge of the matter.

British regulators had been ready to move against UBS a month after officials announced a settlement with Barclays, the person added. The settlement has been delayed, however, as global authorities have tried to pursue a joint agreement with the bank.

“We’ve been going at the pace of the slowest regulator,” the official said.

A version of this article appeared in print on 12/03/2012, on page A1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Ubs Is Reported To Be Near Deal On Rate Rigging.

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Lindsay Lohan Is 'Out of Control,' Says a Source

By Aili Nahas

12/03/2012 at 03:00 PM EST

Things are not looking good for Liz and Dick star Lindsay Lohan.

Less than 24 hours before the well-documented punching incident at an N.Y.C. nightclub that got her arrested, Lohan was "dancing like crazy" past 2 a.m. at The Darby, at one point "causing a scene" when she thought she lost her phone, says an onlooker. "She even demanded that a girl at a nearby table empty her pockets."

The following night, Lohan appeared drunk, according to reports, before she allegedly punched Tiffany Mitchell at a Manhattan nightclub. She is due in court for the altercation on Jan. 7.

Simply put, Lohan, 26, continues to struggle with alcohol, says a friend. "She will fool people into thinking she's changed, but at some point in the night, she always snaps and it's always the same story," says the pal.

After the nightclub incident, Lohan's assistant Gavin Doyle Tweeted to the actress: "@lindsaylohan after bailing you out last night I HOPE and PRAY you get the help you so desperately need. We are ALL rooting for you. xxx."

Lohan is "out of control," adds a second source. "Her friends don't know what to do. She won't ever change."

Meanwhile, another source close to the actress denies that she has a problem and says that it's the "near constant criticism" that's taking a toll on her. "If everything you did was criticized, you'd lash out too," says the pal. "But she'll be fine, she's tough. She'll probably outlive everyone."

For now, Lohan is due in a Los Angeles courtroom on Dec. 12 for a hearing relating to a June 8 car accident that resulted in three misdemeanor charges, including lying to a police officer. Those charges normally wouldn't threaten jail time for a first time offender, but because Lohan is still on informal probation, those charges, combined with a possible assault, could land her in jail.

The last time the starlet appeared before L.A. Superior Court Judge Stephanie Sautner, the judge warned Lohan that she could face 245 days in jail if she slipped up again.

• Reporting by KEN LEE, HOWARD BREUER and EMILY STROHM

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Fossil fuel subsidies in focus at climate talks

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Hassan al-Kubaisi considers it a gift from above that drivers in oil- and gas-rich Qatar only have to pay $1 per gallon at the pump.

"Thank God that our country is an oil producer and the price of gasoline is one of the lowest," al-Kubaisi said, filling up his Toyota Land Cruiser at a gas station in Doha. "God has given us a blessing."

To those looking for a global response to climate change, it's more like a curse.

Qatar — the host of U.N. climate talks that entered their final week Monday — is among dozens of countries that keep gas prices artificially low through subsidies that exceeded $500 billion globally last year. Renewable energy worldwide received six times less support — an imbalance that is just starting to earn attention in the divisive negotiations on curbing the carbon emissions blamed for heating the planet.

"We need to stop funding the problem, and start funding the solution," said Steve Kretzmann, of Oil Change International, an advocacy group for clean energy.

His group presented research Monday showing that in addition to the fuel subsidies in developing countries, rich nations in 2011 gave more than $58 billion in tax breaks and other production subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. The U.S. figure was $13 billion.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has calculated that removing fossil fuel subsidies could reduce carbon emissions by more than 10 percent by 2050.

Yet the argument is just recently gaining traction in climate negotiations, which in two decades have failed to halt the rising temperatures that are melting Arctic ice, raising sea levels and shifting weather patterns with impacts on droughts and floods.

In Doha, the talks have been slowed by wrangling over financial aid to help poor countries cope with global warming and how to divide carbon emissions rights until 2020 when a new planned climate treaty is supposed to enter force. Calls are now intensifying to include fossil fuel subsidies as a key part of the discussion.

"I think it is manifestly clear ... that this is a massive missing piece of the climate change jigsaw puzzle," said Tim Groser, New Zealand's minister for climate change.

He is spearheading an initiative backed by Scandinavian countries and some developing countries to put fuel subsidies on the agenda in various forums, citing the U.N. talks as a "natural home" for the debate.

The G-20 called for their elimination in 2009, and the issue also came up at the U.N. earth summit in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year. Frustrated that not much has happened since, European Union climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard said Monday she planned to raise the issue with environment ministers on the sidelines of the talks in Doha.

Many developing countries are positive toward phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, not just to protect the climate but to balance budgets. Subsidies introduced as a form of welfare benefit decades ago have become an increasing burden to many countries as oil prices soar.

"We are reviewing the subsidy periodically in the context of the total economy for Qatar," the tiny Persian gulf country's energy minister, Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada, told reporters Monday.

Qatar's National Development Strategy 2011-2016 states it more bluntly, saying fuel subsides are "at odds with the aspirations" and sustainability objectives of the wealthy emirate.

The problem is that getting rid of them comes with a heavy political price.

When Jordan raised fuel prices last month, angry crowds poured into the streets, torching police cars, government offices and private banks in the most sustained protests to hit the country since the start of the Arab unrest. One person was killed and 75 others were injured in the violence.

Nigeria, Indonesia, India and Sudan have also seen violent protests this year as governments tried to bring fuel prices closer to market rates.

Iran has used a phased approach to lift fuel subsidies over the past several years, but its pump prices remain among the cheapest in the world.

"People perceive it as something that the government is taking away from them," said Kretzmann. "The trick is we need to do it in a way that doesn't harm the poor."

The International Energy Agency found in 2010 that fuel subsidies are not an effective measure against poverty because only 8 percent of such subsidies reached the bottom 20 percent of income earners.

The IEA, which only looked at consumption subsidies, this year said they "remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, where momentum toward their reform appears to have been lost."

In the U.S., environmental groups say fossil fuel subsidies include tax breaks, the foreign tax credit and the credit for production of nonconventional fuels.

Industry groups, like the Independent Petroleum Association of America, are against removing such support, saying that would harm smaller companies, rather than the big oil giants.

In Doha, Mohammed Adow, a climate activist with Christian Aid, called all fuel subsidies "reckless and dangerous," but described removing subsidies on the production side as "low-hanging fruit" for governments if they are serious about dealing with climate change.

"It's going to oil and coal companies that don't need it in the first place," he said.

___

Associated Press writers Abdullah Rebhy in Doha, Qatar, and Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report

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Karl Ritter can be reached at www.twitter.com/karl_ritter

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Wall Street slips after weak factory data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erasing early gains as disappointing U.S. factory numbers curbed optimism spurred by positive data on China's economy.

Manufacturing in the United States surprisingly contracted in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management, dropping to its lowest level in more than three years. Economic data has been mixed in recent months, sparking new worries about the pace of economic growth at a time when investors are already concerned about the "fiscal cliff" issue in Washington.

Markets had opened higher as output by China's factories grew in November for the first time in more than a year, data showed. Investors look to strength from China, the world's second-largest economy, to offset weak growth in the United States and Europe.

Still, the fiscal cliff remains investors' primary focus, with political haggling continuing over how to deal with large automatic spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to kick in next year that could tip the U.S. economy back into recession.

"Markets have lately been more optimistic than what the reality of the negotiations seems to be, and the reality of that may be starting to set in," said David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox Wealth Advisors in New York. "Until the cliff gets resolved, market upside may be capped while the downside isn't constrained."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 39.57 points, or 0.30 percent, at 12,986.01. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 3.97 points, or 0.28 percent, at 1,412.21. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 3.22 points, or 0.11 percent, at 3,007.02.

The S&P 500 briefly moved above its 50-day moving average at about 1,420, a level that the index has been below since October 22, and now serving as a key resistance point for equities.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pushed Republicans on Sunday to offer specific ideas to cut the deficit. He predicted that they would agree to raise tax rates on the rich to obtain a year-end deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.

Among other factors serving to offset the ISM report were two developments in the euro zone: Spain formally requested the disbursement of more than $50 billion of European funds to recapitalize its crippled banking sector, while Greece said it would spend 10 billion euros ($13 billion) to buy back bonds in a bid to reduce its ballooning debt.

The PHLX Europe sector index <.xex> rose 0.3 percent.

"The general feeling underneath here is things are improving - Europe appears to be improving, at least politically getting their act together," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

Dell shares gained 4.4 percent to $10.06. The stock was one of the biggest percentage gainers in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 <.ndx> after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the stock to "buy" from "sell.

Advanced Micro Devices was the S&P's top gainer, rising 8.2 percent to $2.38. Option traders appeared to be betting on further gains ahead. Early options order flow was focused on upside April calls, including a sweep of 3,594 April $3.50 strike calls for 16 cents per contract when the market was 14 cents to 16 cents, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy.

Retail stocks were among the weakest of the day, with J.C. Penney Co off 3.4 percent to $17.33, and Big Lots Inc down 2.5 percent at $27.47. Staples Inc lost 1.6 percent to $11.51. Consumer discretionary names tend to underperform during periods of economic uncertainty as consumers focus on core purchases.

Singapore Airlines said it was in talks with interested parties to sell its 49 percent stake in British carrier Virgin Atlantic, with sources saying that Delta Air Lines was among the potential suitors. Delta shares fell 2.1 percent to $9.79.

(Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Doris Frankel; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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In Damascus, Tense Anticipation of Strongest Push Yet by Rebels

Joseph Eid/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Distant explosions have awakened a sense of foreboding even in the tranquil Old City.

BEIRUT, Lebanon — As Syrian rebels and government forces clashed on the outskirts of Damascus on Saturday, with explosions rumbling in the distance and warplanes screeching overhead, the rebels appeared to be making their strongest push toward the city since the government repelled an offensive there in July.

A quiet tension prevailed downtown. But security checkpoints were proliferating, and there were reports that President Bashar al-Assad was preparing loyal divisions to defend the city, the capital and heart of his power.

Military analysts warned that it was impossible to know whether a decisive battle for Damascus was beginning, especially as Syrians lost access to the Internet for 53 hours, limiting the flow of information, before it was restored on Saturday. But they said that a government fight to defend its core could be the fiercest and most destructive phase yet of the 20-month conflict.

“We’re waiting for the big battle to begin,” said Emile Hokayem, an analyst based in Bahrain for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For decades, the Assad family has settled loyal military families, many from its minority Alawite sect, in the western outskirts of Damascus, where the presidential palace sits on a plateau overlooking the city. The current fighting suggested that the government was trying to insulate those areas, along with the city center and airport, from the semicircle of urban sprawl curving from northeast to southwest, where rebels have strengthened their position in recent days, overrunning a string of small bases.

Analysts say that Mr. Assad, knowing that losing Damascus could be a decisive blow, has been conserving his best and most loyal troops and much of his artillery for a battle there.

“We’re not yet at a point where the regime is in total panic mode and can no longer make rational — however nasty — decisions about military strategy,” Mr. Hokayem said. “He has to decide which cities around Damascus to destroy and which cities to keep in hand.”

When Damascus was threatened in July, the government pulled forces from parts of northern and southern Syria — allowing rebels to consolidate gains in the north — and there were reports that something similar was happening now. An activist in Damascus said Saturday that elements of the army’s feared Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad, the president’s brother, were at the Aqraba military airport near the Damascus airport. There were unconfirmed reports that other top divisions and special forces were headed for the city, said Joseph Holliday, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in Washington.

“When the rebels score victories in Damascus, it forces the regime to contract more quickly” in the areas that it contests elsewhere, he said.

To some extent that has already happened, said one diplomat, Nasser Judeh, the foreign minister of Jordan. “There are large areas of Syria that are beyond the control of the regime now,” he said Saturday in Washington. “The opposition and the rebel forces are making serious advances. Things are moving in a different direction compared to what they were a few weeks ago.”

Analysts said rebels were unlikely to quickly overrun the government’s positions in the capital. The government has defended chosen strong points, including its most important helicopter base, in the northern province of Idlib, and a base on the road between Damascus and the commercial hub of Aleppo. Rebels have besieged both for months without taking them.

But the encroachment on Damascus has a profound psychological effect that could hasten the crumbling of Mr. Assad’s support — or deepen it among those who fear their fates are tied to his. In July, when rebels briefly held the southern Damascus neighborhood of Midan and bombed a military headquarters downtown, killing four top officials, some government supporters fled to Lebanon and coastal Alawite strongholds, analysts said.

Last month, rebel bombings in Mezze 86, a neighborhood of Alawite military families near the palace, unsettled government supporters amid suspicions of an inside job. In recent weeks, officials have expressed fear of commuting home to the suburbs, worrying that Sunni Muslim conscript soldiers at checkpoints will turn on them, shifting allegiance to the mostly Sunni uprising, said analysts, activists and a foreign reporter recently in Damascus.

Reporting was contributed by Neil MacFarquhar and Hania Mourtada from Beirut; Thomas Erdbrink from Tehran; Hala Droubi from Dubai, United Arab Emirates; and Elisabeth Bumiller from Washington.

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Apple to sell new iPads, iPhone 5 in China in Dec.

CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — Apple Inc. on Friday said its latest iPad models will go on sale in China on Dec. 7, followed by the iPhone 5 a week later.

China is one of Apple‘s largest and fastest-growing markets. Analyst Brian White at Topeka Capital Markets said iPhone 5 is launching roughly when he expected it, but he hadn’t expected the iPad mini and the fourth-generation, full-size iPad to go on sale in China this year.

“Our conversations during our meetings and casual consumer interactions during our China trips tell us that the iPad Mini will take off like wildfire in China,” White wrote in a research report Friday morning. “The smaller form factor and lower price point, we believe Apple will be able to sell the iPad mini in meaningful volumes.”

White said uptake of the iPhone 4S was relatively slow in China, because the signature new feature, voice-recognition-powered virtual assistant Siri, did not understand Mandarin Chinese. With this year’s software update, Siri now does understand the language, which should encourage upgrades, he said.

Gadgets News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Shania Twain Kicks Off Vegas Show

By Mark Gray

12/02/2012 at 02:30 PM EST

Shania Twain in Las Vegas Dec. 1

Jeff Bottari/Getty

Shania Twain still feels like a woman. And now she feels like a Las Vegas headliner.

The Canadian singer kicked off her two-year residency Saturday at Vegas's Caesars Palace with a 90-minute show that features many of her hits and takes the crowd on what she calls a "personal journey."

"The show is very fun for me," Twain, 47, told reporters Saturday. "I was a bit worried that we were staying in the same place. Was I going to lose that edge? But I've never had a show this exciting before."

In fact, her commitment to the show is so intense that she's gone an entire week without seeing the sun (in a town that is famously showered in sunshine) in preparation for her opening night.

It paid off.

Taking the stage for the first time in eight years, Twain appeared giddy and her voice sounded as strong as it did when she was pumping out Grammy-winning songs like "You're Still The One" in the late 90s.

Asked how nervous she was about taking the stage again, Twain said, "I'm actually pretty good."

Her comfort, she said, comes from surrounding herself with things she loves on stage and her husband, Frédéric Thiébaud, who may be her biggest supporter.

"I cannot live without him," she said. "I need that support. I just need what we have. It grounds me every day and reminds me that there are a lot of important things going on in the world."

Added Twain: "He keeps it all in perspective."

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Asperger's dropped from revised diagnosis manual

CHICAGO (AP) — The now familiar term "Asperger's disorder" is being dropped. And abnormally bad and frequent temper tantrums will be given a scientific-sounding diagnosis called DMDD. But "dyslexia" and other learning disorders remain.

The revisions come in the first major rewrite in nearly 20 years of the diagnostic guide used by the nation's psychiatrists. Changes were approved Saturday.

Full details of all the revisions will come next May when the American Psychiatric Association's new diagnostic manual is published, but the impact will be huge, affecting millions of children and adults worldwide. The manual also is important for the insurance industry in deciding what treatment to pay for, and it helps schools decide how to allot special education.

This diagnostic guide "defines what constellations of symptoms" doctors recognize as mental disorders, said Dr. Mark Olfson, a Columbia University psychiatry professor. More important, he said, it "shapes who will receive what treatment. Even seemingly subtle changes to the criteria can have substantial effects on patterns of care."

Olfson was not involved in the revision process. The changes were approved Saturday in suburban Washington, D.C., by the psychiatric association's board of trustees.

The aim is not to expand the number of people diagnosed with mental illness, but to ensure that affected children and adults are more accurately diagnosed so they can get the most appropriate treatment, said Dr. David Kupfer. He chaired the task force in charge of revising the manual and is a psychiatry professor at the University of Pittsburgh.

One of the most hotly argued changes was how to define the various ranges of autism. Some advocates opposed the idea of dropping the specific diagnosis for Asperger's disorder. People with that disorder often have high intelligence and vast knowledge on narrow subjects but lack social skills. Some who have the condition embrace their quirkiness and vow to continue to use the label.

And some Asperger's families opposed any change, fearing their kids would lose a diagnosis and no longer be eligible for special services.

But the revision will not affect their education services, experts say.

The new manual adds the term "autism spectrum disorder," which already is used by many experts in the field. Asperger's disorder will be dropped and incorporated under that umbrella diagnosis. The new category will include kids with severe autism, who often don't talk or interact, as well as those with milder forms.

Kelli Gibson of Battle Creek, Mich., who has four sons with various forms of autism, said Saturday she welcomes the change. Her boys all had different labels in the old diagnostic manual, including a 14-year-old with Asperger's.

"To give it separate names never made sense to me," Gibson said. "To me, my children all had autism."

Three of her boys receive special education services in public school; the fourth is enrolled in a school for disabled children. The new autism diagnosis won't affect those services, Gibson said. She also has a 3-year-old daughter without autism.

People with dyslexia also were closely watching for the new updated doctors' guide. Many with the reading disorder did not want their diagnosis to be dropped. And it won't be. Instead, the new manual will have a broader learning disorder category to cover several conditions including dyslexia, which causes difficulty understanding letters and recognizing written words.

The trustees on Saturday made the final decision on what proposals made the cut; recommendations came from experts in several work groups assigned to evaluate different mental illnesses.

The revised guidebook "represents a significant step forward for the field. It will improve our ability to accurately diagnose psychiatric disorders," Dr. David Fassler, the group's treasurer and a University of Vermont psychiatry professor, said after the vote.

The shorthand name for the new edition, the organization's fifth revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, is DSM-5. Group leaders said specifics won't be disclosed until the manual is published but they confirmed some changes. A 2000 edition of the manual made minor changes but the last major edition was published in 1994.

Olfson said the manual "seeks to capture the current state of knowledge of psychiatric disorders. Since 2000 ... there have been important advances in our understanding of the nature of psychiatric disorders."

Catherine Lord, an autism expert at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York who was on the psychiatric group's autism task force, said anyone who met criteria for Asperger's in the old manual would be included in the new diagnosis.

One reason for the change is that some states and school systems don't provide services for children and adults with Asperger's, or provide fewer services than those given an autism diagnosis, she said.

Autism researcher Geraldine Dawson, chief science officer for the advocacy group Autism Speaks, said small studies have suggested the new criteria will be effective. But she said it will be crucial to monitor so that children don't lose services.

Other changes include:

—A new diagnosis for severe recurrent temper tantrums — disruptive mood dysregulation disorder. Critics say it will medicalize kids' who have normal tantrums. Supporters say it will address concerns about too many kids being misdiagnosed with bipolar disorder and treated with powerful psychiatric drugs. Bipolar disorder involves sharp mood swings and affected children are sometimes very irritable or have explosive tantrums.

—Eliminating the term "gender identity disorder." It has been used for children or adults who strongly believe that they were born the wrong gender. But many activists believe the condition isn't a disorder and say calling it one is stigmatizing. The term would be replaced with "gender dysphoria," which means emotional distress over one's gender. Supporters equated the change with removing homosexuality as a mental illness in the diagnostic manual, which happened decades ago.

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner .

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Cliff fight may knock out December rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - In normal times, next week's slew of U.S. economic data could be a springboard for a December rally in the stock market.

December is historically a strong month for markets. The S&P 500 has risen 16 times in the past 20 years during the month.

But the market hasn't been operating under normal circumstances since November 7 when a day after the U.S. election, investors' focus shifted squarely to the looming "fiscal cliff."

Investors are increasingly nervous about the ability of lawmakers to undo the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that are set to begin in January; those changes, if they go into effect, could send the U.S. economy into a recession.

A string of economic indicators next week, which includes a key reading of the manufacturing sector on Monday, culminates with the November jobs report on Friday.

But the impact of those economic reports could be muted. Distortions in the data caused by Superstorm Sandy are discounted.

The spotlight will be more firmly on signs from Washington that politicians can settle their differences on how to avoid the fiscal cliff.

"We have a week with a lot of economic data, and obviously most of the economic data is going to reflect the effects of Sandy, and that might be a little bit negative for the market next week, but most of that is already expected - the main focus remains the fiscal cliff," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

Concerns about the cliff sent the S&P 500 <.spx> into a two-week decline after the elections, dropping as much as 5.3 percent, only to rally back nearly 4 percent as the initial tone of talks offered hope that a compromise could be reached and investors snapped up stocks that were viewed as undervalued.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained more than 20 points from its intraday low after House Speaker John Boehner said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes could be worked out. The next day, more pessimistic comments from Boehner, an Ohio Republican, briefly wiped out the day's gains in stocks.

On Friday, the sharp divide between the Democrats and the Republicans on taxes and spending was evident in comments from President Barack Obama, who favors raising taxes on the wealthy, and Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, who said Obama's plan was the wrong approach and declared that the talks had reached a stalemate.

"It's unusual to end up with one variable in this industry, it's unusual to have a single bullet that is the causal factor effect, and you are sitting here for the next maybe two weeks or more, on that kind of condition," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago.

"And that is what is grabbing the markets."

BE CONTRARY AND MAKE MERRY

But investor attitudes and seasonality could also help spur a rally for the final month of the year.

The most recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors reflected investor caution about the cliff. Although bullish sentiment rose above 40 percent for the first time since August 23, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30.5 percent for the 14th straight week.

December is a critical month for retailers such as Target Corp and Macy's Inc . They saw monthly retail sales results dented by Sandy, although the start of the holiday shopping season fared better.

With consumer spending making up roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, a solid showing for retailers during the holiday season could help fuel any gains.

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, believes the recent drop after the election could be a market bottom, with sentiment leaving stocks poised for a December rally.

"The concerns on the fiscal cliff - as valid as they might be - could be overblown. When you look at a lot of the overriding sentiment, that has gotten extremely negative," said Detrick.

"From that contrarian point of view with the historically bullish time frame of December, we once again could be setting ourselves up for a pretty nice end-of-year rally, based on lowered expectations."

SOME FEEL THE BIG CHILL

Others view the fiscal cliff as such an unusual event that any historical comparisons should be thrown out the window, with a rally unlikely because of a lack of confidence in Washington to reach an agreement and the economic hit caused by Sandy.

"History doesn't matter. You're dealing with an extraordinary set of circumstances that could very well end up in the U.S. economy going into a recession," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York.

"And the likelihood of that is exclusively in the hands of our elected officials in Washington. They could absolutely drag us into a completely voluntary recession."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: charles.mikolajczak(at)thomsonreuters.com )

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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